distant ruminations

新京报/The Beijing News has a commentary piece calling for a long fight for earthquake relief:

关注次生灾害 打好救灾持久战

Pay close attention to this disaster Fight a long fight for disaster relief

100多个小时过去了，在各方面的全力救援下，迄今已有许多生命，被从汶川特大地震的死亡边缘挽救下来。此时此刻，仍有成千上万的救援者，在抗震救灾的第一线不惧生死地救援，仍有更多全国乃至全世界的善良人士牵挂着灾区和灾民，尽其所能地为他们出钱出力。

Over 100 hours have passed, and through every aspect of the strenuous relief efforts so far many lives have been saved from edge of death in Wenchuan’s severe earthquake. At this very moment, there are still thousands upon thousands of rescuers fearlessly risking their lives in the frontline of earthquake relief efforts, there are still many more kind-hearted people around China and even throughout the world who care about the disaster area and the victims, giving all the money and strength they can.

“不抛弃，不放弃！”当72小时黄金救援时间无情地过去，当新发现的生还者越来越少，无数民众却把这句话当作共同的信念。

“Don’t give up! Don’t quit!” As the 72 hour golden period for rescue has callously passed, as newly discovered survivors become fewer and fewer, countless numbers of people have made this saying their shared faith.

眼下，尽管时间在一天天流逝，但人们的心弦依然紧绷，爱心依然在汇聚。据民政部统计，截至5月17日13时，全国共接收国内外社会各界捐赠款物60.23亿元。

At present, although time is passing by, the aftermath of the quake still tugs at people’s heartstrings, their compassion is still concentrated. According to statistics from the Ministry of Civil Affairs, up to 1 pm on May 17, nationwide a total of 6.023 billion yuan of donated money and goods had been collected from every sector of society within China and overseas.

而与此同时，我们也要牢牢记住，抗震救灾是一场艰苦的持久战。

And at the same time, we must firmly remember, earthquake relief is a long, arduous battle.

历史经验证明，人类在危机中往往迸发出不可估量的求生本能。因此，只要有一丝希望，探寻幸存者、挽救生命的工作就要坚持、再坚持，多坚持一刻，就可能多挽救几条濒危的生命。

Historical experience proves that in a crisis, an immeasurable instinct for survival often bursts out of humanity. Therefore, so long as their is hope, the search for survivors and work to save lives will continue, and continue some more, and continue still more, and so more endangered lives can be saved.

事实也证明，在黄金救援时间过去后，昨天又有两百多名废墟下的灾民成功获救。

Reality also proves, now that the golden period for rescue has passed, yesterday over two hundred victims were successfully rescued from under the ruins.

救人之外，还要防疫。

Apart from saving people, there’s also epidemic prevention.

由于地震发生时适逢大雨，气温较低，人畜尸体腐烂过程被拉长，各种瘟疫蔓延的速度也可能因此被暂时压制。灾区地形复杂，人口分散，许多可能导致瘟疫的疫源，也许要过很长一段时间才会发作，才会危害劫后余生的幸存者。

Because the earthquake happened right when heavy rain was falling and the temperature was relatively low, the rotting process of the corpses of people and livestock was lengthened, and this may have suppressed the speed of spread of every kind of epidemic. The topography of the disaster zone is complex, the population scattered, and there are many possible sources of epidemic, and it is also possible an outbreak may not happen for a long time, threatening the survivors.

大灾之后无大疫，是政府对灾区的承诺，也是对灾区幸存者最实际的慰藉。而要实现这一点，对灾区的防疫、卫生工作， 就要持久关注，确保疫情不发生、不蔓延、不反复，以避免那些本已饱受地震之苦的灾区幸存者，再遭到灾后疫情的二次危害。因此，高度关注每一例疑似传染病 例，将诊断结果第一时间向群众公布，就成为必须。

No epidemic after the disaster, this is the government’s vow to the disaster zone, and it’s also the most practical consolation for the victims in the disaster zone. And to achieve this will require paying close attention to epidemic prevention and hygiene work for a long time, to guarantee an epidemic won’t occur, won’t spread, won’t repeat, to prevent those survivors in the disaster zone who’ve already suffered so much bitterness from the earthquake from meeting the second threat of an epidemic after the disaster. Therefore, paying a high level of attention to every suspected case of a contagious disease and the immediate release of the results of diagnosis to the public have become a necessity.

强震之后，许多地方地质结构被破坏，产生种种地质险情，不少房屋、桥梁、公路、水库水坝等设施，也受到不同程度的损害，留下很难察觉的隐患。这些损害、隐患有些当时发作，有些会在灾后一段时间产生险情。

After the strong quake, many areas’ geological structure has been destroyed, many geological hazards have been created, many houses, bridges, highways, reservoiers, dams, and other infrastructure have received differing degrees of damage, many hidden dangers that are hard to detect remain.

震后几天、十几天，公众的关注集中于此，许多危险较易被发现，并得到及时、妥善处理，但以后呢？

A few days, a couple of weeks after the quake, if the public’s attention is this concentrated, many dangers will be discovered with relative ease, and will be promptly and appropriately dealt with, but afterwards?

从国内外的经验看，有些地震造成的地质和建筑隐患，甚至可能潜伏几年之久。因此，对这些可能对灾区构成二次危害的地质与建筑隐患，就务须持续关注、科学监管、及时预警、妥善处置，以避免灾区幸存者再遭次生灾害的打击。

Looking from experience within and without China, we see some earthquakes create hidden geological and structural problems which may even be concealed for several years. Therefore, we must surely continue to pay attention to, scientifically supervise, promptly warn of, and appropriately handle these hidden geological and structural problems which could create a second danger in the disaster zone to prevent another disaster hitting the survivors in the disaster zone.

而今，地震已在灾区各河流上形成了多个堰塞湖，这些堰塞湖有些可能会较快溃堰决堤，有些却会如悬在灾区头顶的刀子 一般，悬上几个月、几年甚至十几年。正如许多专家指出的，每一个地质堰塞湖都是一颗危险的定时炸弹，大降雨量、小规模地壳运动，甚至一些偶然的人为因素， 都可能导致这枚定时炸弹被引爆。

Now, the earthquake has formed many barrier lakes on every river in the disaster zone. Some of these barrier lakes could quite quickly burst their dykes, some could hang like a knife over the head of the disaster zone, hang there for several months, several years, or even longer. Just as many experts have said, every geological barrier lake is a dangerous time bomb, heavy precipitation small-scale crustal movement, even some accidental artificial factor, all could lead to the detonation of this time bomb.

[note: the formatting may have been stuffed up a little. The internet crapped out and I had to finish this offline in open office. 麻烦]

悬湖一旦决堰，洪水咆哮，席卷而出，其对所经之处的摧毁力，甚至不亚于地震本身。因此，对这些危险的“定时炸弹”，各方面都必须长期关注、科学监察，并尽可能迅速、妥善地寻到有效的解决方法，以避免在疮痍好不容易渐渐平复、家园总算开始重建之际，再遭逢一次无妄之灾。
Once these hanging lakes burst their dams, the floodwaters roar, sweeping everything away, it’s destructive power as great as everything we’ve seen, even as great as that of the earthquake itself. Therefore, we must pay close attention over the long term and scientifically supervise these dangerous “time bombs”, and so far as possible rapidly and appropriately find effective methods to solve the problem to prevent, in this time of trauma that will with great difficulty gradually heal, when homes are finally starting to be rebuilt, another undeserved calamity from happening.
救灾是一场艰苦的持久战，绝不能轻言失败，绝不能轻言放弃，更绝不能轻言胜利。大灾当前，每一个人都必须时刻牢记这一点，从而坚决打好抗震救灾这场持久战。
Disaster relief is a bitter and long battle, and we absolutely can not talk lightly of defeat, absolutely can not talk lightly of giving up, but even more so, absolutely can not talk lightly of victory. The great disaster facing us, every person must constantly keep firmly in mind, thereby resolutely fighting this long battle for earthquake relief.

Right, now let’s see if my connection will last long enough to post this….

A group of five couples were having their wedding photos done outside a 100-year old church as the Wenchuan quake struck. The photos are quite striking.

新京报/The Beijing News, which has a special Wenchuan Quake page, is reporting the arrival of the Japanese rescue team:

 日本救援队获准进灾区

 Japanese rescue team obtains permission to enter the disaster zone

中国外交部昨日正式宣布接受来自日本的紧急援助成员。这是在本次地震后要求提供救援的各国中，中国政府第一个决定接受的国家，也是中国政府首次接受国际人员援助。

China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs yesterday formally announced the acceptance of emergency aid personnel from Japan. This is the first country the Chinese government has decided to accept assistance from in the aftermath of this quake, and is the first time the Chinese government has accepted international aid workers.

　　目前正在成都的民政部救灾救济司司长王振耀昨日在接受本报记者电话采访时称这一举措为“重大的进步”。

    Head of the Disaster Relief and Aid Department of the Ministry of Civil Affairs currently in Chengdu Wang Zhenyao yesterday in an interview with your correspondant said this measure was “great progress”.

There’s more to that article, of course, but I want to move on:

They’re also reporting on the massive amount of donations:

全国捐款13.44亿

The whole nation has donated 1.344 billion

财政部、教育部下拨四川省教育抗震救灾专项资金5000万元

Ministry of Finance and Ministry of Education allocate 50 million yuan special fund to Sichuan education earthquake relief.

据民政部统计，截至15日15时，全国共接收社会各界捐赠款物13.44亿元。

According to statistics from the Ministry of Civil Affairs, up to 3pm on the 15th, the whole nation had accepted donations of money and materials totalling 1.344 billion yuan from every sector of society.

这些捐款当中包括：民政部接收捐款5800万元；中国红十字会总会接收6.24亿元；中华慈善总会接收2.2亿 元；北京、辽宁、河北、山西、内蒙古、吉林、黑龙江、上海、江苏、浙江、福建、江西、重庆、湖南、青海等省份已经向四川、陕西、甘肃等地震灾区捐款3.8 亿元；企业及社会团体捐款6213万元。

These donations include: the Ministry of Civil Affairs has received donations of 58 million yuan; the Chinese Red Cross Society has received 624 million yuan; China Charity Federation has receieved 220 million yuan; Beijing, Liaoning, Hebei, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Jilin, Heilongjiang, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, Jiangxi, Chongqing, Hunan, Qinghai and other provinces have already sent to Sichuan, Shaanxi, Gansu and other areas affected by the quake 380 million yuan; commercial and social groups have donated 62.13 million yuan.

民政部、财政部昨日还启动紧急采购程序，向社会有关厂商采购一批灾区急需的帐篷、棉衣被、照明灯、简易厕所等救灾物资，并将以最快的速度发往灾区。

The Ministries of Civil Affairs and Finance yesterday were still starting their programme of urgent purchases, buying from relevant firms tents, cotton-padded clothes and blankets, floodlights, simple toilets and other urgently needed rescue supplies, and is sending them to the disaster zone as fast as possible.

另外，财政部、教育部下拨四川省教育抗震救灾专项资金5000万元，用于灾区学校特别是中小学校抗灾自救、师生应急临时安置、重置必需的教学用具学习用品等方面的支出。

In addition, the Ministries of Finance and Education have allocated a 50 million yuan Sichuan Province Education Earthquake Relief Special Fund, to be used by schools, especially primary and middle schools, for disaster relief, and for the expenses of teaching equipment learning materials necessary for the settling or resettling of teachers and students.

目前，社会各界捐款热情高涨，提醒公众通过正规渠道奉献爱心。

Currently, there is an enthusiastic upsurge in donations of money from every sector of society, and the public is reminded to devote their compassion through regular channels.

民政部昨日向社会公布救灾捐赠热线。

The Ministry of Civil Affairs announced donation hot lines for society yesterday.

救灾捐赠热线：

Disaster relief donation hot lines:

010—58123111，58123222，58123611、58123617，58123612，（fax）58123613.

Like I said yesterday:

 It’s good to see the whole country getting behind the relief efforts.

It’s also disconcerting, although not at all surprising, to see official warnings to donate through regular channels, the obvious implication being that some may try to take advantage of this outpouring of public sympathy for their own selfish gain.

And then I was a little puzzled by this article:

北京近期无破坏性地震

Beijing won’t have destructive earthquake in near future

That’s probably true, but how can you know?

北京近期不会发生破坏性地震。昨日，北京市地震局新闻发言人、副局长谷永新表示，北京建设有30多个地震前兆监测台站，分布在18区县，对地震变化进行24小时监控。

Beijing won’t have a destructive earthquake in the near future. Yesterday, Beijing Seismological Bureau spokesman and vice director Gu Yongxin said Beijing has established over 30 earthquake warning monitoring stations, spread through 18 districts and counties, monitoring seismic activity 24 hours a day.

Now 地震前兆 (dìzhènqiánzhào) seems to imply monitoring for signs of an impending quake. Seems to be cutting pretty close to earthquake prediction or forecasting to me.

30余监测点24小时监测地下

Over 30 monitoring stations monitoring the underground 24 hours a day

北京的地震预测能力是何种水平？对此谷永新表示，地震预报是个世界性难题，我国虽然在世界上处于先进水平，但还是处于研究探索阶段。据介绍，北京地震监测台站在全国相对密集，预测能力相对较强。

What level has Beijing’s earthquake prediction ability reached? To this Gu Yongxin said earthquake forecasting is a difficult problem worldwide, and although China has reached an advanced level in the world, it is still in the research stage. As is understood, Beijing’s seismological monitoring stations are relatively concentrated by national standards, and its prediction ability is relatively strong.

他说，北京建有30多个地震观测台站，分布在18区县。台站都设置在比较偏僻的、人为干扰或人为影响较小的地区。这些观测台站24小时监测，所有数据都汇集到北京市地震局监测台网中心，24小时有人值守并分析。

He said, Beijing has over 30 seismological observation stations spread through 18 districts and counties. The stations are all set up in relatively remote areas far from the interference or influence of people. These observation stations monitor around the clock and all data is collected by the Beijing Seismological Bureau monitoring station network centre, where people watche over and analyse it 24 hours a day.

对于监测地震的手段，主要包括电磁变化、地下应力和地形变化、观测地下水位、水温、水化学成分变化、小地震活动频度是否异常等方面。比如有的地方小震活动人们虽然感觉不到，但仪器可以监测，这些活动有一定规律，如果突然异常，就需要分析是否会发生地震。

Regarding earthquake monitoring methods, the main methods include electromagnetic variation, subterranean stress and topographical changes, observation of subterranean water levels, water temperature and variation in water chemistry, and whether or not the frequency of small seismic activity is abnormal. For example, although in some places people can’t feel small seismic activity, instruments can monitor it, this activity follows a set pattern, and if it is suddenly abnormal, must be immediately analysed to see if an earthquake will happen.

目前对地下深处监测能力有限

Current ability to monitor the subterranean depths is limited

谷永新表示，目前，北京台站和监测网点还主要是在地表进行监测，即便在地下也是在几百米的地方，而地震发生的震源，哪怕是浅源地震，也是在地下10多公里的地方，不能直接测量到10多公里以下的变化。因此，地表观测是间接的，对深处的监测能力有限。 

Gu Yongxin said that currently the Beijing station and monitoring network are still mostly monitor from the surface, even if it is several hundred metres underground, and the epicentre of earthquakes, even if it’s a shallow quake, is still over 10 kilometres underground, and changes below 10 kilometres can’t be surveyed directly. Therefore, surface observation is indirect, and our ability to monitor the depths is limited.

此外，大地震一般孕育到发生需要几十年、几百年甚至千年，周期很长，需要很长时间的样本资料，才能捕捉到地震的规 律性。但北京地震预报工作从1967年开始全面展开，到目前为止只有几十年的资料，用这种资料来分析可能上千年的地震规律，有一定难度。因此需要不断积累 和研究才能找出规律。

In addition, large earthquakes generally happen dozens, hundreds or even thousands of years after their inception, the cycle is very long and data sampling needs a very long time to grasp the regularity of earthquakes. But Beijing’s earthquake forecasting work began to comprehensively unfold from 1967, and up till the present time has had only a few dozen years of data. Using this kind of data to analyse earthquakes with a regularity that may be over a thousand years of course will be difficult. Therefore constant accumulation and research is needed to find out the regularity.

Now, I grew up in a city with a major faultline running right through the middle (and the main roads and railways out of the city run right on top of that faultline). I have a fair bit of practical experience at the sharp end of quakes, and, as you may expect, I’ve heard a hell of a lot about the science of earthquakes (New Zealand is one of those countries that makes geology fun). I’ve never heard of anything approaching reliable earthquake prediction or forecasting before. I decided to check up on this, in case the science has progresseded further than I realise. The USGS is rather vague and not overly positive. New Zealand’s Institute of Geological and Nuclear Sciences has this to say:

  It is possible to estimate where big earthquakes are likely in the next 50 to 100 years, based on geological investigations and the historical record of earthquakes. However, it is not yet possible to accurately predict the time and location of the next earthquake. A number of physical changes have been observed before some earthquakes, but the problem is that so far, no particular change has been noted consistently. Some scientists have observed changes in the earth’s magnetic and electric fields, gas emissions, changes in water well levels, and changes in the levels of dissolved gases in groundwater. Other scientists have noted changes in the frequency and location of small earthquakes. A very small number of earthquakes have been successfully predicted. The most notable success was near Haicheng, China in 1975, where 90,000 people were evacuated a few hours before an earthquake that destroyed 90 percent of the buildings. The prediction was based on unusual animal behaviour and a greatly increased number of small earthquakes (foreshocks) that suddenly stopped. One of the animal observations was that snakes came out of hibernation and died due to the cold. It is now thought that this was caused by unseasonably warm weather. However, scientists wrongly predicted a major quake in Kwantung Province, and for two months millions of people lived in tents before authorities decided the prediction was wrong. Later in 1976, an unpredicted quake, magnitude 7.8, in China’s Tangshan Province took 250,000 lives. It was the most disastrous earthquake this century. Since then, China has moved its resources away from earthquake prediction and into improving the earthquake resistance of buildings.

Funny how both USGS and GNS mention both Haicheng, 1975 and Tangshan, 1976. Anyway, I’m going to go out on a limb here and say that although the desire to reassure the public is understandable, it is irresponsible to talk in such certain terms about future seismic activity. Gu Yongxin should’ve said Beijing is unlikely to experience a destructive earthquake in the near future.

Southern Metropolis Daily is reporting that too many people are donating money to the Chinese Red Cross online, causing their website to crash.

捐款挤瘫网络　选择其他方式捐款

Donations freeze the net. Choose other methods to donate.

中国红十字会、中国红十字基金会网站昨天被捐款挤爆。相关人士建议选择其他捐款方式。

Yesterday the website of the Chinese Red Cross Society and Chinese Red Cross Foundation was frozen by the sheer number of people donating money. Related persons suggest choosing other methods to donate money.

中国红十字总会、中国红十字基金会12日晚发起赈灾募款活动，得到社会各界积极响应。工作人员介绍，昨日，两大网站就瘫痪了，“捐款的人太多了”。中国红十字基金会工作人员呼吁热心人士选择其他捐款方式或错峰上网。

The Chinese Red Cross Society and Chinese Red Cross Foundation started an disaster-relief fundraising activity on the evening of the 12th, receiving an energetic response from every sector of society. Workers said that yesterday the two big websites had been paralysed, “There were too many donors.” A worker at the Chinese Red Cross Foundation called on enthusiastic people to choose other ways to donate or get online in off-peak periods.

昨天下午1时左右，市民邓先生打算通过李连杰壹基金在淘宝设立的捐款网站进行捐款，但一直无法登录。壹基金市场拓展部表示，在过去24小时里已经筹集到820万元人民币，由于捐款人数很多，导致网速较慢，请捐款市民耐心等待。

At around 1 yesterday afternoon, city resident [Guangzhou?] Mr Deng planned to donate money through the donation page set up at Taobao by Jet Li’s One Foundation. One Foundation’s marketing department said in the past 24 hours 8.2 million yuan had already been collected, and because there were so many donors, causing the internet to slow down, asked city residents wishing to donate money to wait patiently.

此外，中国红十字会总会提醒公众，从未委托个人开展募捐。截至13日14时，中国红十字基金会已累计收到捐赠款物6700余万元人民币，最大一笔企业捐款为中国人寿1600万元。

In addition, the Chinese Red Cross Society reminds the public to never trust individuals soliciting donations. Up till 2pm on the 13th, the Chinese Red Cross Foundation had already received over 67 million yuan in donations, the biggest company donation being China Life’s 16 million yuan.

This is followed with a list of ways to donate, but that’s been done by others, so I won’t reproduce it here.

I should also note that it took three attempts over the course of writing this post to open the Chinese Red Cross homepage. Guess they’re still getting a lot of traffic.

Our local neighbourhood committee has a donation desk set up at the neighbourhood vehicle gate during office hours and they seem to be getting a steady stream of donors. There are also posters up around the neighbourhood and on campus advertising times and places to donate money and blood. This afternoon one of the class monitors was collecting donations from the students at the start of class. It’s good to see the whole country getting behind the relief efforts.

I just turned on the TV, just on a whim, to get a better idea of just how much coverage
the quake rescue efforts are getting. It was a live broadcast of rescuers talking to a young girl trapped in the wreckage. She seemed to be rather lucky, considering: The building had fallen so that she had a little space and could move around. Trouble was she couldn’t get out. She did not seem to be injured and sounded like she was in quite high spirits, and after the rescuers told her they were going to figure out how to get her out, the broadcast ended with her thanking the rescuers most politely.