I can’t quite hear over the noise of lzh cooking, nor can I read the subtitles fast enough to catch everything, not that the subtitles cover everything that is being said, but….. it seems CCTV少儿 (China Central Television Childrens’ channel) has a programme introducing basic geology, with a focus on plate tectonics and seismology. And damn good timing, too, considering the nonsenes that has been spread about the lack of warning for the Wenchuan quake or last night’s (? or the night before’s?) Sichuan Seismology Bureau (correct me if I’m wrong, but that’s where the reports lead) “forecast” of an imminent aftershock.
So let me just add my two fen worth: Earthquakes can NOT be predicted. Earthquakes are caused by plate tectonics. They have nothing to do with weather or solar movements or anything else. Science, people, stick with it.
Chris,
To be more precise, earthquakes can be predicted to some extent in the medium to long term (e.g. by statistical means). However, the extent to which they can be predicted is of no practical use.
cc, that’s what I meant. If we’re talking about a probability of an earthquake of x magnitude occurring in y area within the next 50 to 100 years, then we’re talking my childhood. What’s pissing me off right now is people, including, apparently the Sichuan Seismology Bureau, if the reports I’ve read today are correct, predicting earthquakes like it’s the weather. That’s just plain irresponsible and potentially very destructive. Let’s please just stick with the science.
I agree te statistical models are a bit rough…
My Grandad sent his condolences to the people of Sichuan.
Sorry comment evolved into a blog post here.. http://riceagain.com/personal/earthquakes-for-lack-of-a-better-title-because-im-tired/