新京报/The Beijing News, which has a special Wenchuan Quake page, is reporting the arrival of the Japanese rescue team:
日本救援队获准进灾区
Japanese rescue team obtains permission to enter the disaster zone
中国外交部昨日正式宣布接受来自日本的紧急援助成员。这是在本次地震后要求提供救援的各国中，中国政府第一个决定接受的国家，也是中国政府首次接受国际人员援助。
China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs yesterday formally announced the acceptance of emergency aid personnel from Japan. This is the first country the Chinese government has decided to accept assistance from in the aftermath of this quake, and is the first time the Chinese government has accepted international aid workers.
目前正在成都的民政部救灾救济司司长王振耀昨日在接受本报记者电话采访时称这一举措为“重大的进步”。
Head of the Disaster Relief and Aid Department of the Ministry of Civil Affairs currently in Chengdu Wang Zhenyao yesterday in an interview with your correspondant said this measure was “great progress”.
There’s more to that article, of course, but I want to move on:
They’re also reporting on the massive amount of donations:
全国捐款13.44亿
The whole nation has donated 1.344 billion
财政部、教育部下拨四川省教育抗震救灾专项资金5000万元
Ministry of Finance and Ministry of Education allocate 50 million yuan special fund to Sichuan education earthquake relief.
据民政部统计，截至15日15时，全国共接收社会各界捐赠款物13.44亿元。
According to statistics from the Ministry of Civil Affairs, up to 3pm on the 15th, the whole nation had accepted donations of money and materials totalling 1.344 billion yuan from every sector of society.
这些捐款当中包括：民政部接收捐款5800万元；中国红十字会总会接收6.24亿元；中华慈善总会接收2.2亿 元；北京、辽宁、河北、山西、内蒙古、吉林、黑龙江、上海、江苏、浙江、福建、江西、重庆、湖南、青海等省份已经向四川、陕西、甘肃等地震灾区捐款3.8 亿元；企业及社会团体捐款6213万元。
These donations include: the Ministry of Civil Affairs has received donations of 58 million yuan; the Chinese Red Cross Society has received 624 million yuan; China Charity Federation has receieved 220 million yuan; Beijing, Liaoning, Hebei, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Jilin, Heilongjiang, Shanghai, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, Jiangxi, Chongqing, Hunan, Qinghai and other provinces have already sent to Sichuan, Shaanxi, Gansu and other areas affected by the quake 380 million yuan; commercial and social groups have donated 62.13 million yuan.
民政部、财政部昨日还启动紧急采购程序，向社会有关厂商采购一批灾区急需的帐篷、棉衣被、照明灯、简易厕所等救灾物资，并将以最快的速度发往灾区。
The Ministries of Civil Affairs and Finance yesterday were still starting their programme of urgent purchases, buying from relevant firms tents, cotton-padded clothes and blankets, floodlights, simple toilets and other urgently needed rescue supplies, and is sending them to the disaster zone as fast as possible.
另外，财政部、教育部下拨四川省教育抗震救灾专项资金5000万元，用于灾区学校特别是中小学校抗灾自救、师生应急临时安置、重置必需的教学用具学习用品等方面的支出。
In addition, the Ministries of Finance and Education have allocated a 50 million yuan Sichuan Province Education Earthquake Relief Special Fund, to be used by schools, especially primary and middle schools, for disaster relief, and for the expenses of teaching equipment learning materials necessary for the settling or resettling of teachers and students.
目前，社会各界捐款热情高涨，提醒公众通过正规渠道奉献爱心。
Currently, there is an enthusiastic upsurge in donations of money from every sector of society, and the public is reminded to devote their compassion through regular channels.
民政部昨日向社会公布救灾捐赠热线。
The Ministry of Civil Affairs announced donation hot lines for society yesterday.
救灾捐赠热线：
Disaster relief donation hot lines:
010—58123111，58123222，58123611、58123617，58123612，（fax）58123613.
Like I said yesterday:
It’s good to see the whole country getting behind the relief efforts.
It’s also disconcerting, although not at all surprising, to see official warnings to donate through regular channels, the obvious implication being that some may try to take advantage of this outpouring of public sympathy for their own selfish gain.
And then I was a little puzzled by this article:
北京近期无破坏性地震
Beijing won’t have destructive earthquake in near future
That’s probably true, but how can you know?
北京近期不会发生破坏性地震。昨日，北京市地震局新闻发言人、副局长谷永新表示，北京建设有30多个地震前兆监测台站，分布在18区县，对地震变化进行24小时监控。
Beijing won’t have a destructive earthquake in the near future. Yesterday, Beijing Seismological Bureau spokesman and vice director Gu Yongxin said Beijing has established over 30 earthquake warning monitoring stations, spread through 18 districts and counties, monitoring seismic activity 24 hours a day.
Now 地震前兆 (dìzhènqiánzhào) seems to imply monitoring for signs of an impending quake. Seems to be cutting pretty close to earthquake prediction or forecasting to me.
30余监测点24小时监测地下
Over 30 monitoring stations monitoring the underground 24 hours a day
北京的地震预测能力是何种水平？对此谷永新表示，地震预报是个世界性难题，我国虽然在世界上处于先进水平，但还是处于研究探索阶段。据介绍，北京地震监测台站在全国相对密集，预测能力相对较强。
What level has Beijing’s earthquake prediction ability reached? To this Gu Yongxin said earthquake forecasting is a difficult problem worldwide, and although China has reached an advanced level in the world, it is still in the research stage. As is understood, Beijing’s seismological monitoring stations are relatively concentrated by national standards, and its prediction ability is relatively strong.
他说，北京建有30多个地震观测台站，分布在18区县。台站都设置在比较偏僻的、人为干扰或人为影响较小的地区。这些观测台站24小时监测，所有数据都汇集到北京市地震局监测台网中心，24小时有人值守并分析。
He said, Beijing has over 30 seismological observation stations spread through 18 districts and counties. The stations are all set up in relatively remote areas far from the interference or influence of people. These observation stations monitor around the clock and all data is collected by the Beijing Seismological Bureau monitoring station network centre, where people watche over and analyse it 24 hours a day.
对于监测地震的手段，主要包括电磁变化、地下应力和地形变化、观测地下水位、水温、水化学成分变化、小地震活动频度是否异常等方面。比如有的地方小震活动人们虽然感觉不到，但仪器可以监测，这些活动有一定规律，如果突然异常，就需要分析是否会发生地震。
Regarding earthquake monitoring methods, the main methods include electromagnetic variation, subterranean stress and topographical changes, observation of subterranean water levels, water temperature and variation in water chemistry, and whether or not the frequency of small seismic activity is abnormal. For example, although in some places people can’t feel small seismic activity, instruments can monitor it, this activity follows a set pattern, and if it is suddenly abnormal, must be immediately analysed to see if an earthquake will happen.
目前对地下深处监测能力有限
Current ability to monitor the subterranean depths is limited
谷永新表示，目前，北京台站和监测网点还主要是在地表进行监测，即便在地下也是在几百米的地方，而地震发生的震源，哪怕是浅源地震，也是在地下10多公里的地方，不能直接测量到10多公里以下的变化。因此，地表观测是间接的，对深处的监测能力有限。
Gu Yongxin said that currently the Beijing station and monitoring network are still mostly monitor from the surface, even if it is several hundred metres underground, and the epicentre of earthquakes, even if it’s a shallow quake, is still over 10 kilometres underground, and changes below 10 kilometres can’t be surveyed directly. Therefore, surface observation is indirect, and our ability to monitor the depths is limited.
此外，大地震一般孕育到发生需要几十年、几百年甚至千年，周期很长，需要很长时间的样本资料，才能捕捉到地震的规 律性。但北京地震预报工作从1967年开始全面展开，到目前为止只有几十年的资料，用这种资料来分析可能上千年的地震规律，有一定难度。因此需要不断积累 和研究才能找出规律。
In addition, large earthquakes generally happen dozens, hundreds or even thousands of years after their inception, the cycle is very long and data sampling needs a very long time to grasp the regularity of earthquakes. But Beijing’s earthquake forecasting work began to comprehensively unfold from 1967, and up till the present time has had only a few dozen years of data. Using this kind of data to analyse earthquakes with a regularity that may be over a thousand years of course will be difficult. Therefore constant accumulation and research is needed to find out the regularity.
Now, I grew up in a city with a major faultline running right through the middle (and the main roads and railways out of the city run right on top of that faultline). I have a fair bit of practical experience at the sharp end of quakes, and, as you may expect, I’ve heard a hell of a lot about the science of earthquakes (New Zealand is one of those countries that makes geology fun). I’ve never heard of anything approaching reliable earthquake prediction or forecasting before. I decided to check up on this, in case the science has progresseded further than I realise. The USGS is rather vague and not overly positive. New Zealand’s Institute of Geological and Nuclear Sciences has this to say:
It is possible to estimate where big earthquakes are likely in the next 50 to 100 years, based on geological investigations and the historical record of earthquakes. However, it is not yet possible to accurately predict the time and location of the next earthquake. A number of physical changes have been observed before some earthquakes, but the problem is that so far, no particular change has been noted consistently. Some scientists have observed changes in the earth’s magnetic and electric fields, gas emissions, changes in water well levels, and changes in the levels of dissolved gases in groundwater. Other scientists have noted changes in the frequency and location of small earthquakes. A very small number of earthquakes have been successfully predicted. The most notable success was near Haicheng, China in 1975, where 90,000 people were evacuated a few hours before an earthquake that destroyed 90 percent of the buildings. The prediction was based on unusual animal behaviour and a greatly increased number of small earthquakes (foreshocks) that suddenly stopped. One of the animal observations was that snakes came out of hibernation and died due to the cold. It is now thought that this was caused by unseasonably warm weather. However, scientists wrongly predicted a major quake in Kwantung Province, and for two months millions of people lived in tents before authorities decided the prediction was wrong. Later in 1976, an unpredicted quake, magnitude 7.8, in China’s Tangshan Province took 250,000 lives. It was the most disastrous earthquake this century. Since then, China has moved its resources away from earthquake prediction and into improving the earthquake resistance of buildings.
Funny how both USGS and GNS mention both Haicheng, 1975 and Tangshan, 1976. Anyway, I’m going to go out on a limb here and say that although the desire to reassure the public is understandable, it is irresponsible to talk in such certain terms about future seismic activity. Gu Yongxin should’ve said Beijing is unlikely to experience a destructive earthquake in the near future.
